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The latest projections from 338Canada indicate that Mark Carney is on track to form a majority government.

338Canada🍁federal update | April 8, 2025Details here → 338canada.com/federal.htmFind your riding here → 338canada.com/districts.htm

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338canada.bsky.social) 2025-04-08T11:52:36.767Z

This spectacular turnaround comes after months of decline for the Liberals under Justin Trudeau, who have seen their popularity plummet against the Conservatives.

According to the latest 338Canada projections as of April 2025, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is on track to win a majority in the House of Commons with 196 seats, far surpassing the required threshold of 172.

The Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre would obtain 120 seats, while the Bloc Québécois would garner 17. The NDP would be relegated to 8 seats, and the Green Party would retain only 2.

These figures confirm a spectacular reversal of the political landscape in just a few months, as the Liberals were given as losers at the beginning of the year.

The arrival of Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has given new momentum to the Liberal Party, which now reaches 44% of voting intentions.

This progress is partly explained by the reaction of Canadians to the tariff threats and aggressive statements by Donald Trump towards Canada’s sovereignty.

Faced with this situation, Mark Carney’s firm response seems to have convinced the electorate more than Pierre Poilievre’s hesitant attempt to distance himself from the American president.

Faced with Carney, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is struggling to maintain the momentum of his party, which was still enjoying a comfortable lead in voting intentions not so long ago. His image remains tarnished by controversial statements and a political line often perceived as mirroring that of Donald Trump, which hinders his ability to broaden his electorate.

According to Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada, the Liberals now have a 55% chance of winning a majority, compared to less than 1% in January.

Canadians are called to the polls on April 28th.

The trade war triggered by the Trump administration against China has reached a new level, with a direct speech by Xi Jinping on the subject and the entry of Tesla into play.

Trump Tariffs Live: China hits back at US by increasing tariffs to 125%. Follow our live coverage here reut.rs/3G33Ea6

— Reuters (@reuters.com) 2025-04-11T11:20:26.432Z

For the first time since the beginning of the tariff escalation between China and the United States, President Xi has spoken out, stating that China is « not afraid », as Beijing raises its customs duties on American products to 125% in a new episode of the trade war.

China has stated that it does not want to exceed 125%, considering that further escalation would be unnecessary. It has also criticized Trump’s strategy, which is based exclusively on tariff pressure, seeing it as proof of an intimidation tactic used by a tyrant to force the hand of its trading partners.

« There are no winners in a trade war, and opposing the rest of the world only leads to isolation, » Xi said in his first public comments on the situation.

On the US side, the company Tesla, headed by billionaire Elon Musk, an ally of Trump, seems directly affected by the trade war.

In response, the company has stopped taking orders in China for two of its imported models, namely the Model X SUV and the Model S sedan.

According to Reuters, Tesla has even removed the « order now » buttons from its Chinese website, as well as the ordering features on its mini-program accessible via the Chinese WeChat app.

Although Elon Musk proudly claims that Tesla is the most « American-made » vehicle, the company remains heavily dependent on foreign suppliers, particularly Chinese ones, for essential components such as battery materials.

This dependence, combined with trade tensions and the controversies surrounding Musk, makes Tesla’s future uncertain, especially in the face of unpredictable decisions that Donald Trump may make.