The United States and Iran are locked in a standoff regarding ceasefire negotiations, and the Strait of Hormuz is still at the center of the negotiation. As of April 30, both sides seem to believe that time is on their side as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. For Iran, the Strait’s closure has halted all mining exports and shipping traffic, and for the US, the Strait has inflated the price of crude oil and gasoline across the world. In the US, gas prices have now risen more than 40 per cent since the start of the war, and experts claim the price of oil will continue to rise as the US and Iran continually fail to sign a ceasefire agreement.
Trump won’t back down
With the US blocking all Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump believes the country will eventually back down. Trump has publicly stated that he will not sign a ceasefire deal that does not include an immediate disarmament of Iran’s supposed nuclear program. Trump claimed that he would be willing to block Iranian ports until leaders in Tehran “cry uncle.” Iran’s leadership is taking another approach. In the month of April, Tehran discovered that it could grind shipping traffic to a halt using nothing more than drones and mines. Both weapons represent low-cost options for Iran that carry expensive consequences for vessels in the strait.
Tehran has stated it wants a ceasefire that includes stages, first opening the Strait, then dissolving its nuclear program. Tehran has said it will not disarm its nuclear program until US and Israeli attacks stop. Donald Trump says he won’t stop those attacks until the nuclear program is disarmed. While the situation seems like a standard stalemate, Trump claims that his “blockade is genius,” before avoiding a question about upcoming face-to-face meetings with Iran’s leaders.
“We’re not flying anymore with 18-hour flights every time we want to see a piece of paper. We’re doing it telephonically, and it’s very nice.”
According to Trump, spending money on an international trip only to get “a piece of paper that you don’t like.” He implied that he would not visit Iran for a ceasefire proposal unless it was centred around Iran’s nuclear program.
Gas prices spiking
With ceasefire talks on hold, US gas prices are still skyrocketing. On February 28, gas was sold for less than $3 a gallon. Now, prices have shot up to $4.20 a gallon. The price of crude is the highest it’s been since the COVID-19 pandemic. Its current trading price of nearly $113 a barrel (Brent crude benchmark) is the highest it’s been since the 2008 financial crisis. While there is strong opposition from international markets to Iran’s closure of the Strait, Tehran insists that it has the right to regulate traffic and charge tolls. While the closure is impacting every country that imports oil, no nation has been willing to aid the US militarily.
Ceasefire denied
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi travelled in and out of Islamabad twice during the weekend of April 25, meeting with leaders regarding peace talks. According to Reuters, a proposal carried by Araqchi to Islamabad over the weekend envisioned talks in stages. A first stage would require an end to the war, including guarantees that the US cannot restart it afterwards. Negotiators would then resolve the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iran’s trade by sea and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran aims to reopen under its control. Only then will Iran be willing to look into negotiations regarding other items, including its nuclear programme. A potential disarming of the programme could look similar to the 2015 nuclear deal between the US and other global powers.
Iran’s proposal failed to include plans to end its nuclear programme until the war has reached a conclusion. But Trump wants the nuclear programme to be dismantled now, not later. In a post on Truth Social, Trump revealed some of the contents of Iran’s message. Trump claimed that Iran informed him they are in a ‘state of collapse’ and that they want the US to open the Strait of Hormuz as Iran finds a new leader.
War on Iran
On February 28, 2026, the US government and Israel undertook a joint operation in Iran, with the US subsequently declaring it was at war with the country. The attacks triggered retaliatory strikes from Iran, targeting US and Israeli military bases across the Middle East. According to Donald Trump, there is no timeline for this war, and the US will continue its operations in the country until it sees a significant regime change, as well as an end to Iran’s supposed nuclear program.
US and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, on Day One of the war, completing Trump’s supposed goal. Khamenei has been using deadly violence against civilian protesters in Tehran, and his killing has been the only positive piece of Donald Trump’s illegal intervention. Donald Trump changed his reasoning for attacking Iran after Khamenei’s death, instead claiming he attacked Iran because he had certain information that Iran was going to attack Israel and the United States. Israel calls the strategy ‘forward defence’. Now, after 51 days of war, both Iran and the US continue to posture and are engaging in a standoff surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump needs to alleviate pressure on oil markets in order to further commit financially to the War, and Iran is trying to balance its own exports while putting pressure on the West. The result has been overwhelmingly negative for all civilians involved.
