This is the time of year when trade speculation is rife. The Habs’ forward needs are also well documented.
A few weeks ago, I myself submitted a proposal that was very unpopular with Kaiden Guhle fans. I sent the Habs’ #21 to Calgary in exchange for Nazem Kadri.
If we’re going to get a top-4 defenseman who’s been injured too often, for an extra $1.5 million, we might as well get a veteran center who’s still productive, talented, rugged and left-handed for 3-4 years, I thought.
Lo and behold, this week, Jean-Charles Lajoie sent the likeable Kaiden to Nashville in exchange for Ryan O’Reilly.
No crazier. A slightly shorter contract.
As we were saying just last week, with the arrival of Adam Engstrom on the scene – not necessarily definitive, but good – and the forthcoming arrival of David Reinbacher, it’s obvious that the defensive hierarchy will be seriously re-evaluated in the coming months, if not weeks.
So let’s have a little fun today assessing the value of the members of this defence, even if some of them could well be considered “untouchables”
1. Noah Dobson
First and foremost, let’s start with the Canadiens’ most recent high-priced draft pick, acquired in return for picks 16 (Victor Eklund), 17 (Kashawn Aitcheson) and Emil Heineman.
With Dobson, we have a recent yardstick that will help us through the rest of this exercise.
A 12th overall pick in 2018, the Edwardian Prince, who turns 26 in January, has been a veritable metronome, playing around 23 minutes per game (22:49) since the start of the season. His name is even circulating in the rumours of the Canadian team for the Olympic Games in February.
Heading for a nearly 60-point season (16 points in 22 games), an outstanding skater at 6’4, the value of the right-handed Dobson, a star NHL defenseman, has certainly not gone downhill since his arrival in town.
For the Habs, in context, he’s worth even more than two mid-first-round picks and a good supporting winger.
If Engstrom and Reinbacher were to make such astonishing and unexpected progress, only a great young or relatively young center could possibly give Kent Hughes pause about his big #53.
But that kind of center hardly ever comes on the market.
And, in my mind, even if the Habs still have a huge hole at center, Dobson is currently worth more than the Elias Pettersson and Mason McTavish of this world..
But, one on one, still in the current context of the Habs with its nursery of defensemen, to have a better club now, I’d maybe trade Dobson for a Dylan Larkin or a Quinton Byfield. Nothing below that.
2. Lane Hutson
Who’s worth more between Hutson and Dobson? Some GMs would prefer the former, others the latter.
Unlike Dobson, Hutson still doesn’t play short-handed, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the ability.
In the end, Dobson plays an average of just 10 seconds more per game than the American, who takes the lion’s share of the powerplay.
For my part, because he’s younger, more talented and snappier, I’d still opt for Hutson before Dobson, and I believe that Hutson’s optimal market value would be higher than Dobson’s. At least, I wouldn’t trade him.
At least, I wouldn’t trade him for Dylan Larkin.
But if you offer me a Jack Eichel or a Quinton Byfield, I’ll think about it..
3. Mike Matheson
It’s hard to put a price on Mike Matheson right now. The veteran, who turns 32 in February, has never been better.
The Montrealer dominates the team with his +13 record, while constantly playing against the opposition’s best players.
It’s literally been a perfect season so far for Matheson. He’s THE best defenseman on the Habs right now, playing an average of one minute more than Dobson and Huston (24:50). The only thing he lacks is playing time, which he richly deserves on the power play.
With his new 5-year/$30 million contract, Matheson is probably worth the equivalent of two first-round picks plus one or two quality prospects on an aspiring club. It’s obviously not going to happen, but theoretically, he could also have given the Habs a very good second center.
But in reality, it’s clear that his value to the Habs is far greater than his trade value over the next few seasons.
4. Kaiden Guhle
Kaiden Guhle was once worth a lot more, but now everyone has come to the conclusion that he’s an extremely injury-prone player (concussions, knees, shoulders, hatred, etc.).
However, there will always be a GM willing to offer a good price for a 24-year-old top-4 defenseman (in January) with a “reasonable” long-term contract.
The process has already begun, and Guhle’s value to the Habs will continue to shrink over the coming months/years.
Its trade value is already clearly higher than its use value.
I’m at the point where any good second center of any age, let’s say, at the worst of the worst, a Phillip Danault, under contract for a few seasons, would do my bidding in return for his services.
Good for you if you’re more patient than I am…
5. Jayden Struble
The Habs wouldn’t get the moon for Jayden Struble, but they could get immediate sandpaper reinforcement at forward from a club that doesn’t expect to make the playoffs or a club that has some surplus, but would have less depth on defense.
Otherwise, as long as they’re offered second- or third-round picks, the Habs are better off keeping him.
Even as a 7th defenseman, his usage value would still be higher than that kind of offer in the current habs context
6. Arber Xhekaj
Mathias Brunet recently suggested that Xhekaj was still worth the equivalent of a (late) first-round pick to some NHL clubs. If this is indeed the case, the Habs are likely to pull the trigger, perhaps not as fast as Lucky Luke, but not far off.
Speaking of Lucky Luke, perhaps Los Angeles, where Marc Bergevin still works, would be a good sun destination for the Sheriff..
7. Adam Engstrom
Here’s the man who perhaps most inspired this article following his well-deserved recall, which I mentioned last week.
Was the Swede called back to put him on display? Was he recalled to find out exactly what we had on hand? To see if he’s already better than Xhekaj and Struble? To see if he could be a long-term replacement for Guhle, an idea I dared to raise a few years ago?
Go figure.
Engstrom is here, and his game will offer his bosses plenty of answers.
But he’s already in demand. The first answer for the Habs is to determine whether his use value can be greater than his trade value.
Right now, we have no idea.
Then we’ll talk.
8. David Reinbacher
In theory, Reinbacher, right-handed, strong, versatile,5th overall pick in 2023, is still worth more than Engstrom on the market. He’s still worth at least a first-round pick.
But the Austrian is already starting to earn a reputation as “Mr. Bobos everywhere”.
One thing’s for sure: his value has dropped considerably since he was selected by the Habs. Remember that on the day of his draft, Nashville’s Barry Trotz was reportedly willing to give up the NHL’s most promising goaltender, Yaroslav Askarov, to acquire him at No. 5, and the Habs said no!
The Canadiens have no interest in trading him in the current context. The only way to complete his development and increase his use value… and trade value.
That said, Reinbacher’s anticipated use value, probably to the right of Hutson on a second or first pair, is certainly greater than his current trade value.
So we’ll simply have to keep developing him in Laval until the fruit is ripe.
9. Alexandre Carrier
Carrier was quite an acquisition for Hughes and Gorton last year in return for Justin Barron. Without him, the Habs probably wouldn’t have made the playoffs. But since Tom Wilson knocked him out last spring, he hasn’t been the same player. A movie we’ve seen dozens of times over the years in the NHL..
Carrier will have one year left on his contract after this one. If Reinbacher comes to town at the end of the season, we shouldn’t be surprised if Carrier is traded next summer or simply becomes a 6th, 7th or even 8th defenseman in 2026-2027. A kind of new David Savard ” light “.
Here again, if we’re going to get a3rd or4th round pick, we might as well keep him.
Conclusion
The Habs have one of the best defenses in the league.
It’s got a bit of everything.
Mature players in the prime of their careers or at the peak of their powers.
Youngsters with intriguing potential who need to be seen and developed further.
Good backs (Struble, Xhekaj) who can be useful, but who we can eventually do without.
The next few months (or even weeks) are likely to be very interesting.
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