” Nature abhors a vacuum ” (Aristotle)
If we agree that humans are part of nature, and that they too “abhor a vacuum”, it’s hardly surprising that they have, over time, invented gods, science and philosophy to answer all their questions.
To fill the “void”.
It’s no wonder, then, that the feverish Flannel supporter is overcome by vertigo when he tries to situate his “favorite reason for living” in relation to his rebuilding process!
” Where are we now?
An existential question if ever there was one!
Among others, a “serious” podcast paid “a’ec our taxes”, wondered just last week – during the recent five-game losing streak, mind you! – whether the rebuilding of our beloved Flanelle would take “longer than expected”.
To answer that question, let’s take a step back or, better still, climb Mount Royal (for want of an Acropolis!) to get a better look at the big picture, rather than staying glued to the dizzying news that passes judgment on a daily basis, as victories and defeats come and go…
A reconstruction in two stages
An overview should first enable us to identify the “official” start of this famous reconstruction, and what has been said about its expected length.
And on this point, opinions could not be more diverse!
November 2021, Geoff Molson, following the dismissal of Marc Bergevin, finally decides to use the word “rebuild” in a straightforward manner, but without giving a deadline, the idea of a finish line.
(OBOXADSQ || []).push({“cmd”: “addBanner”});
(Credit: HabsTV)
So, two years and counting after Molson’s decision, are we only in “year 2” of the process, as we keep hearing?
You bet we are!
If that were the case, it would be a hell of a boost to win the Cup in 2027, as Réjean Tremblay hopes!
The Penguins had the fastest rebuild in recent history, winning the Cup just eight years after trading Jaromir Jagr and six years after drafting Marc-André Fleury first overall in 2003. They then had the incredible good fortune to draft two generational centers back-to-back in 2004 and 2005: Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby!
But fortunately, the Habs rebuild actually goes back much further than Bergevin’s dismissal and the drafting of the good Juraj in 2022!
The roots go much deeper!
You have to go back to the spring of 2018, when Bergevin traded for the venerable Tomas Plekanec, a few months before drafting Jesperi Kotkaniemi3rd overall and getting his hands on Nick Suzuki in return for Max Pacioretty!
You simply have to split the Habs rebuild in two to get a clearer picture.
There was Bergevin’s famous ” reset on the fly ” between 2018 and 2020 – in reality a mini-rebuild – in which we welcomed Kotkaniemi, Romanov, Suzuki, Caufield and Guhle in 24 months, while keeping Price, Weber, Gallagher and Danault.
Then there was a small hiatus in 2020-2021, which became Bergevin’s “ultimate attempt” to win the Cup with his beloved veterans by adding “big playoff meat”: Anderson, Chiarot, Edmundson, Toffoli and Perry.
It almost worked.
So close… yet so far.
Following this gamble, which in reality only lasted a few months, we witnessed the great implosion that coincided with the sad endings of the careers of two future Hall of Famers and the equally unfortunate departure of Danault on the free agent market.
BUT, let’s not forget, if Danault stays in Montreal long-term, the Habs are likely to find themselves in no-man’s-land for many years to come, unable to draft Slafkovsky in 2022 and likely to forget Reinbacher in 2023.
We might as well say that, had Danault come to an agreement with the Habs, there would have been no “real reconstruction” and the best-case scenario would have been to continue patching holes in the foundations, walls and roof…
So, if we add up the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023 drafts, the Habs are already at five clearly so-called “rebuilding” drafts.
And it’s not as if the 2021 draft is de facto a no-impact draft, with picks like Mailloux and Roy already showing clear promise.
June 2024 will be the Tricolore’s 6th – or 7th, if we include 2021 – rebuilding draft since 2018.
So we’re a long way from “year two”… and that’s a damn good deal!
Finally, to all these drafts, we must also add that the acquisitions of recent first-round picks, Barron (2020), Dach and Newhook (2019) by Kent Hughes, have further maximized the potential of these first 6-7 years of rebuilding.
In the middle of a long process?
Last year, Phoenix Coyotes general manager Bill Armstrong said that a rebuild could take anywhere from 6 to… 14 years, depending on whether you’re talking about the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Hawks or…St. Louis Blues, with whom he’d just learned the rudiments of the GM’s trade in a fairly long and methodical rebuilding process.
Before winning the Cup in 2019 without any “superstars” to speak of, the Blues had enjoyed a number of good seasons following the drafting of Alex Pietrangelo4th overall in 2008. They were patient, accumulated the right picks over the years (not always in the top-10) and made a few daring trades, and it paid off in the end.
So, if you think once again that the Habs’ model is eerily similar to that of the Blues, and that it’s also part of a process that could easily last a decade or so from the time of the Suzuki acquisition, then you discover that we’re somewhere… towards the end of the middle of the rebuild!
In the absence of a superstar, the Canadiens are counting on four dominant forwards in their top-6, including these three who are already “thrilling” the fans.
Based on the recent success of Slafkovsky, Caufield and Suzuki, which 1st trio thrilled you the most? 🏒#Debate #laraquegonzalez pic.twitter.com/3siVrXK0oe
– BPM Sports (@BPMSportsRadio) February 15, 2024
(OBOXADSQ || []).push({“cmd”: “addBanner”});
He’s got the makings of an excellent third trio with Newhook and Roy.
He already has quite a few defensemen who can aspire to be part of a good top-4.
He seems to have enough talent and relief in goal not to have to worry about that.
So, with a few summer adjustments/additions from HuGo, a normal increase in maturity among the organization’s youngsters and fewer serious injuries, can we expect the Habs to make the playoffs next year?
Yes.
Can we hope that it will start to make some noise in 2025-2026, when HuGo’s plan will start to show its true face and we’ll have been able to add the missing pieces?
Yes.
But let’s not put the cart before the horse.
As with the Blues, analysis of the big picture indicates that the Habs rebuild probably won’t reach its apogee until 2028, a good ten years after it began.
And that’s to be expected.
Conclusion
Dach’s injury is a blessing in disguise.
Being very optimistic, with a healthy Dach and, who knows, hanging on to Monahan for the last stretch of the season, we could have seen a “springboard” season, a kind of transition season where the playoffs could have been “possible”.
But pessimists (or clairvoyants, as the case may be) would have immediately thought – playoffs or not – of a season of no man’s land at the draft.
In the end, however, it all boiled down to an unprecedented opportunity to add another top draft pick for a third consecutive season – a tried-and-tested recipe for success that has been followed by every winner over the past 15 years.
So it was another season of total rebuilding, a third in a row, with the consolation prize of a nice percentage for the “Celebrini lottery” and – let’s not forget – the arrival of Hutson, Reinbacher and Engstrom in the coming weeks.
In my opinion, these arrivals are very important.
Should the Canadiens draft5th or 6th next summer, the performances of this promising “trio” of young defensemen between now and the end of the season in Laval and Montreal will help the organization make an optimal decision as to which type of player to select: another talented (right-handed) defenseman or the best forward still available.
They will also – like the club’s first selection in June – give us a better idea of the answer to our initial existential question: will the rebuild take longer than expected?
“Where do we stand?
We’ll be in touch!