Hensler, Nesbitt or Murtagh: optimal “realistic” choices for the Habs at 16th and 17th?
For the second year in a row, we’re concocting a super mock draft with colleague Marc-Olivier Beaudoin. The whole thing will be brought to you next Saturday, six days before the draft.
This highly enjoyable exercise, in which we are forced to put ourselves in the shoes of the various NHL executives, allows us to realize how it is possible for certain prospects to “slip”, and how others could be selected earlier than anticipated.
That being said, if we can hope that prospects who are hot in Montreal these days, such as Carter Bear, Radim Mrtka and Justin Carbonneau, are still available in the 16th and 17th spots, we won’t hold our breath too long.
And it’s just as risky, if not more so, to think that the Habs will manage to move up in the draft.
It could well be that the Habs will have to turn to players with less exciting profiles, at least at first glance…
Players like Logan Hensler, Jack Nesbitt and Jack Murtagh.
In search of optimal choices
At the stage the Habs have reached in their rebuilding, that is, when you look at the state of their prospect bank and include the youngsters already in place in Montreal, I think certain organizational needs are easily identifiable and could be met in the medium to long term via the draft.
Hensler, Nesbitt and Murtagh clearly meet these needs… and aren’t light-years away from the NHL.
But be careful! I’m not saying we should sacrifice talent for need!
I’m simply saying, once again, that we need to aim for the optimal choices for the organization; that is, aligning the curves of talent and organizational needs.
That’s how you build the foundations of a hockey team, if you want to do it through the draft.
Otherwise, if you just pick the supposed raw talent, you run the risk of ending up with a bunch of similar players like the Buffalo Sabres.
Who wants that?
In a rebuilding process, the key is to gather as much solid, complementary material as possible with a view to building an aspiring club. So, in my opinion, we should aim for an almost total absence of organizational needs, without sacrificing talent.
Hensler… and succession on the right side of the defence
David Reinbacher’s press briefing after the Rocket’s elimination was not 100% reassuring for the future, let’s put it that way.
The Austrian, who played a very solid game overall after his return in February, admitted he was still feeling stiffness and inflammation in the knee he operated on last fall.
Even after a long convalescence.
Even taking long breaks after his return.
Even taking days of treatment between games.
That didn’t stop him from playing fairly well in the playoffs, but was he fully recovered from his surgery?
Clearly not.
And since he already had problems with his knees prior to the operation, will he still have some fragility in that area of his body?
So many questions..
Logan Mailloux, meanwhile, has yet to establish himself in the NHL, three full seasons after being drafted.
Not at all unusual for a 31st overall pick, you may say. Fair enough.
But neither is it a harbinger of great things to come.
Especially since the flaws in his game, noted in 2021, are much the same today: questionable puck management, low level of alertness in his zone, variable risk assessment, and so on.
All of which brings us to Logan Hensler, practically the antithesis of Mailloux.
If we assume that Radim Mrtka will no longer be available at No. 16 and that the Habs are unlikely to move up to get him, Hensler becomes the best right-handed defenseman potentially available, unless we want to risk the bigger, less mobile and meaner Blake Fiddler.
the American Hensler disappointed us a little in our mid-season rankings (15th), and in our last evaluation, we dropped him out of the top-20.
But could he be better and more talented than he showed us in his first year in the NCAA with a very ordinary club in Wisconsin?
Firstly, just to play in the NCAA in his draft year is a pretty rare occurrence. There are only a handful of cases like his every year. A period of adaptation is normal, and few defenders score many points in their first year (except Hutson and similar aliens).
Secondly, we think it’s quite possible that Hensler wanted to oversimplify his game.
In short, could it be that we haven’t seen the real Logan Hensler, in the same way that Bob Gainey may not have seen the real Ryan McDonagh (also in Wisconsin) at another time, even after drafting him?
It’s not impossible, because in certain sequences you see the skating, you see the shooting, you see a very interesting potential in transition play.
We think there’s more to him than the awkward or cautious player we’ve seen too often this season, and we’re entitled to expect an increase in production next year in the NCAA.
One might also think that against guys his age, in less defensive leagues like the CHL, Hensler could have recorded around 40 points, while playing some very good defensive hockey.
Wouldn’t that paint a completely different picture?
For the rest, Hensler is an exceptional skater, graceful and agile in all directions. And at 6’2, almost 200 lbs, he covers a lot of space with authority. He defends very well, especially with his stick, but also knows how to use his body when needed. All in all, a mature player with a lot of raw material for Adam Nicolas to polish.
A sure bet to play in the NHL in 2-3 years. As McDonagh was…
Nesbitt: a left-handed center who ticks quite a few boxes for the Habs
Up front, if the likes of Carter Bear, Justin Carbonneau and Brady Martin are no longer available, we’ll also have to be open to a few less familiar names.
So don’t fall off your chair if Nesbitt or Murtagh are mentioned by Kent Hughes on June 27.
I, for one, would be delighted.
The case of Jack Nesbitt , a proud representative of the Anishinaabe Nation of Manitoulin Island, Ontario, is intriguing. He’s a 6’4 left-handed center, still a little frail (185 lbs), but already capable of averaging a point per game in the OHL.
I must confess to having underestimated and neglected Nesbitt all year. He should have been in my top-20 instead of Ben Kindel, or at the very least in my “honorable mentions”. An unfortunate omission. As was Bill Zonnon’s…
In Nesbitt’s case, firstly, there’s a huge improvement between his first year (18 pts in 58 games, -32) and his second in the OHL (64 points in 65 games, +12).
A very, very good sign…
He may not be a great skater right now, but that doesn’t mean he’s slow or clumsy. In fact, he has enormous potential to develop. He’ll just have to add some meat, especially in the lower body, to explode more and be more powerful in his stride
You immediately notice a very intelligent, hard-working, persistent and skilful player around the opponent’s net.
An underrated passer, Nesbitt is also a good scorer. He’s very quick on returns (impressive hand-eye coordination) and has an excellent wrist shot that he draws quickly, often receiving and throwing the disc in a single movement.
His constant presence in front of goal also makes him a nuisance, attracting a fair number of penalties.
Not bad on face-offs (50%), he also has an excellent feel for the game, both offensively and defensively, where he steals and intercepts many pucks. Really great potential at 200 feet.
We’ve seen him play with some excellent players in Liam Greentree (119 pts) and Ilya Protas (124 pts), whom he seems to complement perfectly, especially on the powerplay.
A true pro style, simple and effective.
Not an unpleasant profile if you’re a Habs fan… and a Stanley Cup fan..
For older fans, he may remind you of Bobby Smith.
In terms of organizational need at forward, Nesbitt is perhaps the prospect who ticks the most important boxes: Center. Left-handed. 6’4 (210 lbs at maturity?). Plays in front of the net. Scores goals. Wins face-offs. Good defensively. Smart with and without the puck.
Very nice midfield potential that leans heavily toward the second line, if you ask me.
The “other Jack”, a solid, talented left winger
The ceiling on another Jack, this one Murtagh, may seem even more tempting to some.
Could the highly versatile 6’1, almost 200 lbs American, a good skater and excellent shot, become one of the very good wingers in this draft?
I think so.
The need for a talented left-shooting winger may not be the Habs’ greatest need, but past Slaf and Demidov, who both prefer to play on the right, a left-shooting winger might not hurt.
And let’s just say that Joshua Roy and Sean Farrell are far from sure things for a potential top-9 contender…
The dynamic Murtagh played without a true #1 center in the USNTDP last season, but got away with averaging almost a point per game (53 in 56, including 22 goals).
The native of East Greenbush, New York, is also one of the youngest players in the upcoming auction (August 22, 2007), so he could still grow and get a little bigger.
He’s also headed for one of Hughes and Gorton’s favorite institutions, Boston University, where he’ll have plenty of time to develop physically.
Already a fairly explosive skater with an excellent shot and a quick draw, Murtagh can also get physically involved in front of goal and along the boards.
All things considered, he may not be that far from the NHL. All the basic tools are already there..
Possibility of an impressive duo in terms of pick value… and let’s not forget Zonnon!
In short, perhaps the Habs will find themselves with one or two ” good Jacks ” in a few weeks’ time..
We love good Jacks in Quebec…
All kidding aside, Nesbitt and Murtagh have pretty high ceilings, a lot of qualities and very few flaws.
They’d also both fill huge needs with their size at two rather weak organizational positions: left-handed center and left wing.
On the right side of defense, perhaps a more quiet and sober Logan will replace another, a little too scattered and whose development is a little worrying…
In short, the more we think about it, the harder it is to see how moving forward to, say, get our hands on Martin, Bear, Mrtka or Carbonneau could compete in terms of ” pick value ” for the Habs with any duo that can be formed from Nesbitt, Murtagh and Hensler.
Finally, as mentioned earlier, another imposing, underrated left-handed center like Montreal’s Bill Zonnon, often identified at the end of the first round, could also be very tempting for the Habs. But they’ll have to be creative to acquire him. A file to follow, perhaps by trading the two second-round picks (41 and 49)…
I’m suddenly looking forward to June 27.