Well, Juraj Slafkovsky has recorded 4 points in his last 5 games and was probably his team’s best forward yesterday against the Sharks…
Let’s continue our analysis!
We left off last Saturday with the idea of going into more detail about the power forwards of Slafkovsky’s generation, who are far more relevant comparables than, say, the last 50 overall picks after their first 50 NHL games.
After all, the CH knew full well it wasn’t going to draft Jack Hughes, Crosby or McDavid.
Neither would Matthews or Ovechkin.
Nor would they draft Patrik Stefan or Brian Lawton.
And let’s not even get into the numerous defensemen drafted at No. 1 over the years. That would be like putting broccoli in a fruit salad…
In short, to find relevant comparables, let’s scan the top-10 drafts from 2013 to 2023 to identify the power forwards drafted early and with the same intention as the CH executives had for Slafkovsky: to find one of the best power forwards of his generation.
A few methodological points for our comparisons
Since no one knows exactly how many points Slafkovsky would have recorded over 82 games in his first season at age 18 (10 points in 39 games), we’ll leave ourselves a margin of maneuver ranging from 20 to 35 points.
Three factors should be taken into consideration to explain this leeway:
1) Martin St-Louis wanted to give him more and more responsibility in the 2nd half of the season;
2) Several relevant comparables had the chance to evolve in a much more favorable environment;
3) Born on March 30 (2004), Slafkovsky is one of the youngest of his peers. Many took their first steps in the NHL at the age of 19.
Now we’re ready!
Relevant comparables
2013
Valeri Nichushkin, AD, 10th overall
After an interesting first season (34 points) in Dallas at age 18, partly alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn at the top of their game, in a club that was a little bare on the right wing, Nichushkin took a long time to get to the next level. It wasn’t until his 9th post-draft campaign – including a few seasons in the KHL – that he finally blossomed in the NHL: 52 points in 62 games and another 15 in 20 playoff games with the 2022 Stanley Cup winners, the Colorado Avalanche, alongside MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar and company.
With his physical strength and (very) late blooming, Nichushkin remains one of the most relevant comparables when it comes to Slafkovsky. Even if this example makes us advocate the extreme patience that the Stars didn’t have, we’re going to hope that the unblocking happens a little more quickly in the Slovak’s case…
Considering that Nichushkin regularly played more than 15 minutes per game in his 34-point rookie year (not the case for Slaf), but then plateaued, or even regressed, for all sorts of reasons over the next seven seasons (injuries, etc.), it can’t be said that Slafkovsky lags behind the Russian early in his career. Let’s call it a draw at 18-19.
2014
Leon Draisaitl, C/AG/AD, 3rd overall
After a very timid start, similar to Slaf at 18 – in fact, more like 19, as he was born on October 27 (9 pts in 37 games) – Draisaitl returned to the WHL. He then started the following year in the AHL (6 games, 2 points) before being recalled at just 20 years of age to never look back (51 points in 72 games), in the company of a certain newcomer by the name of Connor McDavid.
The rest is history.
It would be a bit like Slaf playing with Connor Bedard this year in his second season… That would help!
Observation: Surprising as it may seem, Slafkovsky isn’t behind Draisaitl at the same age, he’s even technically a little ahead of him at 19! That’s a pretty cool thing to think! Now, we’re all anxious to see if the trend continues at 20-21… Who knows what kind of player he’ll become when he matures! But considering the monstrous 120-point player Draisaitl has become alongside McDavid, let’s keep things in perspective here with Slaf and not get carried away!
2015
Timo Meier, AD, 9th overall
Considered a ” late bloomer” (born October 8, 1996), Meier played his first NHL games at age 20, about a year and a half after being drafted, recording 6 points in 34 games in 2016-2017 after playing 33 games (23 points) in the AHL that same season.
He went on to score 21 goals at age 21 and 30 nets at age 22 with the Sharks, before reaching his full potential in 2021-2022, at age 25 with a 76-point haul in 77 games.
Observation: Slaf is clearly ahead of Meier at 18-19. He did better at 18 than Meier did at 20. It’s a no-brainer. Another note to the many Nobel Prize winners who call Slafkovsky a flop from the height of their sapience on social networks…
2015
Mikko Rantanen, AD, 10th overall
Also a late bloomer (born October 29), Rantanen played 9 NHL games (0 points) at age 18-19, but scored 60 in 52 AHL games, and even played 4 AHL games the following season, before settling permanently at age 20 with the Avalanche, scoring 38 points in 75 games. He exploded in his3rd season after the draft with a 29-goal, 84-point performance alongside a certain Nathan MacKinnon, and has been a metronome ever since.
This other Avalanche power winger, with his style of play – effective defensively, criss-crossing the right wall on the power play, capable of converging at the net – is also one of the most relevant comparables for Slafkovsky, combining strength and finesse.
Observation: At the same age, 18-19, we can logically call for a draw between the two. We’ll see next season if Slafkovsky can do better than 0.5 points per game at 20, but if you tell me he’ll score 84 points at 21, I’ll sign the paper right away!
2016
Jesse Puljujarvi, AD, 4th overall
This certainly won’t please Slafkovsky’s most ardent admirers and defenders, but being objective, we have to include Jesse Puljujarvi among his relevant comparables. Here we have two big, fast and talented European power wingers who impressed in international tournaments in their draft year.
After scoring 8 points in 28 games as 18-year-olds with the Oilers, Puljujarvi treaded water with the organization for a few years before returning to Finland for a season and a half. Puljujarvi showed some encouraging signs on his return to the Oilers at 22-23 (36 points in 65 games in 21-22), but nothing more.
Traded to the Hurricanes since then, the Finn underwent hip surgery last summer and hopes to return to the NHL as a free agent in December at age 25. He remains an interesting bet, as the operation could revive his career, but in the meantime, Puljujarvi remains a name regularly mentioned by Slaf haters, who don’t hesitate to use the ignoble “ F” word to describe him.
Fact: Puljujarvi was clearly not a better hockey player than Slafkovsky at the same age, not to mention the general attitude… We also think that the Slovak’s sense of the game is more evolved than the Finn’s. Finally, considering the tactical progression and maturity at the same age, and the fact that he didn’t have the chance to play with McDavid AND Draisaitl, we have to give Slafer a certain advantage.
Matthew Tkachuk, AG, 6th overall
Recording a very solid 48 points in his first season at 18-19, already mature and comfortable in his body, the older brother didn’t disappoint in his NHL debut. He exploded in his third season with a 77-point production, surrounded by Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm and Giordano, all smoking that year:
(OBOXADSQ || []).push({“cmd”: “addBanner”});
With back-to-back 100+ point seasons at ages 24 and 25, Matthew can now be considered one of the top 10 players in the entire NHL.
Last spring, the Habs sent videos of Matthew Tkachuk to Slafkovsky during his convalescence, so that he could draw inspiration from his intelligent, heavy, confident and effective style of play. An excellent role model.
But whatever happens, Slaf ‘s progression curve already doesn’t resemble that of Matthew Tkachuk, much more mature for the NHL, much more physically and tactically mature at the same age. The apple didn’t fall far from Keith’s tree…
Observation: Chosen 6th overall, Matthew Tkachuk quickly made a lot of people regret their decision, including the Oilers, who thought they were lucky to get Puljujarvi at No. 4. He was also much better than Slafkovsky at the same age (19).
No relevant comparables in 2017
Despite being 6’2 and 6’3 respectively, centers Nolan Patrick and Cody Glass weren’t exactly perceived as power forwards in their draft year. In both cases, for various reasons (injuries, etc.), their careers never really took off. Next!
2018
Andrei Svechnikov, AD, 2nd overall
Rightly or wrongly, here’s a forward to whom Slafkovksy was heavily compared before his draft and in his first NHL season. After a successful year with the Barrie Colts, the Russian, born in late March as a Tricolore prospect, scored 37 points, including 20 goals, as an 18-year-old with the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes were already counting on Aho and Teravainen at the top of their game, as well as veteran Justin Wiliams, to show him the way.
season…
(Credit: screenshot / Hockeydb.com)
No one was surprised by Svechnikov’s production, as he had already matured physically and tactically in the OHL, being heavy on the puck and not hesitating to use his shot in the pay zone. We were already close to the finished product. Unsurprisingly, he exploded in his second year with 61 points in 68 games, but he never really changed levels after that.
Conclusion: Victory for Svechnikov at 18 and 19!
Brady Tkachuk, AG, 4th overall
The younger brother could very well have become a member of the Montreal Canadiens, had management at the time not been obsessed with the need to draft a center (Kotkaniemi) at No. 3 that year (and no, KK, despite his size, isn’t really a relevant comparable for Slaf, since he was drafted first and foremost for his 2-way center skills, not his power).
Although not as prolific as the elder, Brady’s career was built on solid foundations from the start and, in classic fashion, he exploded in his 4th campaign with 30 goals and 67 points in 79 games, before scoring 35 goals and 83 points last season.
It’s also worth noting that Brady is a true late bloomer, having turned 19 (September 16) even before the start of his first season following the draft!
In terms of style, it will be interesting to see whether Slaf will be closer to Brady’s ” meat and potatoes ” style, or whether he will really be closer to Matthew’s much more versatile style, as team management and the main interested party seem to want.
Finally, given a certain amount of unblocking in the next 64 games, we’re curious to see if Slafkovsky could come close to the 45 points Brady produced as a 19-year-old. To suirrrrrrrrre…
Observation: A banner year for power forwards in 2018, but there’s no contest: both Brady Tkachuk and Svechnikov got off to more impressive career starts than Slafkovsky, who arrived less physically and tactically mature than those two.
2019
Kappo Kakko, AD, 2nd overall
Another power forward (a little light, that said) regularly compared to Slafkovsky – not least because he was drafted by Bobrov and Gorton – Kakko is still struggling to find his stride and his place with the Rangers, where he has more often than not played on the 3rd trio in his first four seasons. The man who would have scored 28 points over 82 games in his rookie year reached the 40-point plateau for the first time last year in his fourth season. The real explosion hasn’t happened yet.
A very consensual second-round pick behind Jack Hughes in 2019, here’s a player now in his fifth season who may simply have been overrated by the hockey world in his draft year. But also stuck behind rich, productive veterans, perhaps a change of scenery could do him a world of good…
Observation: A draw at 18-19. But I think Slafkovsky, when he matures, will have a much heavier, more defined game as a power forward than Kakko ever will. It’s also worth noting that the latter is off to an atrocious start this year…
2020
Alexis Lafrenière, AG, 1st overall
Power forward isn’t necessarily the first word that comes to mind when you think of Lafrenière, 6’1, 194 lbs, but when you watch him play and reread the pre-draft comments and analyses on the Quebecer, you come across the epithet attached to his name quite frequently. Heavy on the puck, capable of creating and finishing plays, he’s a highly relevant comparable and, as a bonus, he was drafted first overall, just like Slafkovsky.
Although he too is an authentic late bloomer (born on October 11) and played his first NHL season at 19, Lafrenière didn’t break anything in his first three NHL seasons. He nevertheless showed steady progress, going from 21 to 31 to 39 points in a solid environment, but one that also deprived him of quality minutes on the top line and power play.
(Credit: screenshot / Hockeydb.com)
With 8 goals and 12 points in 17 games, he seems to be blossoming in his fourth season. Nothing very original there, as you’re beginning to notice. And even if he doesn’t become the best player of 2020 (Allo Tim Stützle!), Lafrenière won’t be a flop for all that. A word of wisdom…
Lafrenièrewas a 1st overall pick 10 times more consensual than Slafkovsky. However, considering that he was 19 years old in his first year, and that he played in an environment more conducive to early blossoming than Slafkovsky, we can’t really say that Lafrenière had a better start to his career than the CH prospect. Match drawn.
Quinton Byfield, C/AD, 2nd overall
Here’s an interesting comparable who’s often overlooked when it comes to Slafkovsky. Some put Byfield ahead of Lafrenière in 2020, citing his speed, impressive size and young age (still 17 at the time of the draft, having been born on August 19, 2002).
Seen from the outside, the Ontarian took a while to get going (11 points in his first 46 games at 18 and 19, then 22 in 53 games at 20), but here’s another one who looks like he’s going to blossom in his 4th season (15 points in 17 games).
Byfield’s arrival in L.A. was not rushed.
Originally, he was drafted to one day take over from Kopitar (currently his center), but in the meantime, we also signed Quebec pivots Danault and Dubois. In short, we let Byfield develop at his own pace in the AHL (exceptionally at 18, because of the covid that closed the OHL), then on the 4th line last year in L.A., putting as little pressure on him as possible, and it seems to be working.
The Habs may not have exactly the same luxury with Slaf‘s development, and have decided to continue his apprenticeship directly in the NHL. But whether you like the idea or not, MSL and the organization still seem methodical in assigning responsibilities to the young Slovak.
Observation: Let’s go with another draw. Byfield and Slafkovsky look a lot alike at the same age: not quite comfortable in their still-changing bodies and not yet tactically rendered. If patience and small bites have paid off for one, there’s a good chance they will for the other…
2021
Mason McTavish, C, 3rd overall
9 games, three points at 18 before returning to dominate in junior. Not the biggest, heaviest power forward , but McTavish plays heavy and inside the circles, has a nice scoring touch and shows intelligence all over the ice. 43 points in 80 games, last season at 19-20. A bright future lies ahead for this strapping young Canard, who shone with all his feathers against the CH earlier this week.
Observation: Advantage McTavish. Slaf was already in the NHL at 18, but McTavish had a very good season at 19-20 (born January 30) and is already rolling around the point-per-game mark so far this season… A bit like the Tkachuk, McTavish possesses impressive physical and tactical maturity for his age.
2022
Cutter Gauthier, AG, 5th overall
Gauthier chose to play another season in the NCAA rather than report to the Flyers, who would no doubt have welcomed him with open arms. This season, he’s playing for Boston College (11 goals, 15 points in 12 games) in the company of compatriots Gabriel Perreault, Will Smith and Ryan Leonard, as well as a certain Jacob Fowler in net…
Style-wise, he’ll be by far the most interesting comparable for Slafkovsky in this crop, even if he’s a little more renowned for his shooting and scoring skills than for his power per se.
Observation: Gauthier has impressed at recent world junior and senior championships, but at nearly twenty years of age (January 19), he’s still not playing in the NHL and is therefore not technically ahead of Slafer .
2023
Ryan Leonard, AD, 8th overall
Leonard, at 6’0, 192 lbs, looks a bit like a power forward, or at least he was drafted with that in mind by the Capitals… For the record, Fantilli (3rd) and Carlsson (2nd) have good size, but were widely perceived as players far superior to the CH’s #20 at 18, and are mostly recognized for qualities other than their imposing physique and power (speed, hockey IQ, finesse, shooting, etc.).
Dalibor Dvorsky, C, 10th overall
Newly transferred to Sudbury in the OHL, news that didn’t make much of a splash here, Slafkovsky’s compatriot also has power in his arsenal (6’1, 205 lbs) and plays very heavy in possession of the disc around the opposing net, in addition to possessing a devastating shot.
Observation: These two players don’t play in the NHL; Slafkovsky simply seems to be ahead of Leonard and Dvorsky at the same age.
Conclusion
Only four of the 15 comparable power forwards selected in the top-10 since 2013 were clearly superior to Slafkovsky in their NHL debuts at 18 or 19: the two Tkachuk brothers, Andei Svechnikov and Mason McTavish.
That’s all there is to it!
What do they have in common? All four came into the show more mature in every way, physically, tactically and mentally.
Of course, we’re not telling you that Slaf will necessarily become superior to the other eleven, including the Draisaitl and Rantanen of this world.
Not at all!
We’re just saying that he easily fits in with the average of these 15 comparable players at the same age.
A flop, really?
In fact, only one out of 15, Puljujarvi – much to the Oilers’ dismay – has clearly become a flop, even if a Nichushkin-like blossoming at 25 is still possible.
In other words, the chances of Slafkovsky becoming a monumental mistake are in the region of 6.66%.
Or 13.3%, if we want to be a little “severe” and hasty, and immediately add Kappo Kakko…
In short, being as objective as possible, we’re repeating ourselves, but everything’s normal so far for Slafkovsky!
He seems much more likely to be in the 87% “success” bracket than in the 13% “failure” bracket.
And judging by the confidence with which he’s starting to play, it’s not just a question of percentage…
He’s even ahead of some of the best players of his age.
So, those who believe Slafkovsky is already a flop have almost 90% probability of being in the potato patch, or simply of being precocious talent evaluators, depending on how you look at it…
Even if progress is already palpable, as is the case for most of the players analyzed, Slafkovsky’s talent is more likely to come to the fore in his 3rd, or even more likely in his 4th year, than in his 2nd campaign.
(OBOXADSQ || []).push({“cmd”: “addBanner”});
Apples with apples…
Finally, I hope this exercise has reassured a few of you about 2022’s top pick.
So, based on our relevant comparables, the Slovakian theoretically has about 9 chances out of 10 of becoming a very good power forward who will meet his employers’ expectations.
Otherwise, if you’re a ” 50s fan ” who likes “fruit salad with a bit of broccoli in it”, you can always compare him to other first overall picks in history and chant that Slafkovsky is the 4th worst first overall pick of the last 50 years after 50 games all you want.
Good for you.
We’re just not sure we want to eat that salad…