I know you do. You know it. We know it. The media world is in crisis and going through a real revolution.
In sports, it’s worse (or it’s peculiar, if you prefer that term): it’s increasingly difficult to make a profit from the economic activities of a sports media outlet, be it print, audio or video.
Most TV stations, however, have realized that the only way to do this is to broadcast (quality, high-profile) live sport. Opinion shows now have a place on the Web…
Yesterday, a few hours before the start of the NBA Finals series, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Silver Circuit had reached – or will reach in the next few days – a new TV deal south of the border: NBC, ESPN and Amazon will pay more than $76 billion to broadcast NBA games together on their respective platforms for 11 seasons. That’s $76,000 million!
Bye-bye TNT (Warner Bros. Discovery)…
We’re talking about $6.91 billion per season, divided as follows:
2.6 billion via ESPN (Disney), which will continue to present the finals matches. Games will also be accessible via the new streaming site to be launched by ESPN in 2025. In the end, Disney will pay more for fewer games, as I understand it…
2.5 billion via NBC, which plans to broadcast fifty games per season on NBC (the regular channel, since NBC Sports is no more), then another 50 on Peacock, its streaming network.
1.8 billion via Amazon, which will present regular-season games, playoff games, the new season-long tournament and play-in games.
The NBA is expected to earn between two and three times more in streaming revenues than before.
(Credit: YouTube.com)
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What does this mean for the NHL?
As we all know, Gary Bettman and the NHL often take their cues from the NBA when it comes to “innovation”.
The rights recently sold for $76 billion in the NBA are the American national rights. In the NHL, these rights belong to ESPN, TNT and ABC until 2027-28. That’s not going to change just yet…
But the Canadian national rights will expire in two years almost to the day.
Since the NBA reached an agreement a year before the end of its current U.S. national contract, there’s reason to believe that in a year’s time, we’ll know the new broadcasters of NHL national games in Canada. As in the NBA…
And according to excellent sources, you don’t negotiate these kinds of deals on the corner of a table the month beforehand. Negotiations have already begun, and should result in a deal that will be announced somewhere in June 2024 (if all goes well).
Rogers wagered and won the jackpot alone 10 years ago. The company, which had previously discussed the matter with Québecor, subsequently sold the French-Canadian national rights to TVA Sports.
From what I hear, the deal is likely to be much more complex in two years’ time.
The NBA will be broadcast on one traditional TV network, one specialty network and three streaming sites when the new deal takes effect south of the border. From what I hear, the NHL will follow such a model as early as 2026-27 in Canada.
We’ll need an English-speaking partner who’s in the sport and available from coast to coast on TV. There are only two possible partners: Rogers or Bell. A few people believe that the two could join forces, as is currently the case with MLSE, but all the people I’ve spoken to don’t dare believe it. At least not yet!
Watch out! Not a few people thought TVA Sports would win the French-language game 10 years ago…
There will certainly be a partner exclusively in the streaming business, not traditional TV. Since Amazon just picked up some Canadian national rights via Rogers a few weeks ago (for the last two years of the current contract), I’d put my money on a Rogers – Amazon partnership if Mise-o-jeu offered the line, hehe…
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But you’re interested in the Franco-Quebec market, right?
Maybe we’ll give Amazon the luxury of presenting all 22 national games in French on its platform, but I think we’ll continue to have a traditional French-language TV partner in Quebec. And there are only two real options once again: Bell and Québecor.
From what I hear, the relationship between Québecor and the NHL is excellent right now, and both the NHL and Québecor would like to renew their agreement. The problem: Quebecor is aware that it paid too much for the rights 10 years ago, and the NHL will be looking for more money in its next deal, not less.
I’m also told that the relationship between Rogers and Quebecor is (really) not as good as it was in 2014. But then, relationships are always reworked…
Could Bell (RDS) become a Rogers partner for the Quebec territory? It’s possible… but as long as the two companies are working together in Quebec, why shouldn’t they work together nationally? Good question!
Ah yes… I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bell (Noovo) or Québecor (TVA) broadcast a few games on traditional Quebec TV, should the company win the rights. NBC will do it south of the border with the NBA. Although Québecor is afraid to do so at present, so as not to reduce the number of TVA Sports subscribers…
Prediction: a year from now, we’ll learn that Rogers, Amazon and RDS will be broadcasting national NHL games in Canada for the next ten years.
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Why RDS and not TVA Sports?
Why a Rogers-Bell deal in Quebec, but not in Canada? Simply because I believe Rogers will outbid Bell for the rights… but only RDS will broadcast NHL games in French in Quebec. Pierre-Karl Péladeau said not long ago that the survival of his sports channel depended on the CRTC, and we’re still waiting…
I don’t see how the channel – which hasn’t yet secured its future – could at this very moment negotiate rights that will sell for more than it’s currently spending (too much money in its eyes) on. Even knowing full well that if she leaves all the space to Bell, it could end up being a disaster for her. #TVASports #Vidéotron #Hélix #ClubIllico #Vrai
In short, I see national hockey returning to RDS… and occasionally being broadcast on Noovo.
Ah yes… I also think CBC will keep its traditional (and free) “Hockey Night In Canada“. Gary Bettman wants to keep it, it’s already produced by Sportsnet (Rogers) and Rogers pockets all the revenues from broadcasting on CBC. As for CBC, we’re talking about a state station that’s quite happy to have great ratings (even without revenues) on Saturday nights. #HisMandate
If my prediction proves correct, it will be interesting to see if TVA Sports can survive without the huge expense of broadcasting NHL hockey or if, on the contrary, the channel will come back irrelevant.
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Regional rights: the real battle in Quebec
The real(TV) battle in hockey – especially with the Canadiens, who never make the playoffs – will be with the French-language regional rights currently held by Bell (RDS).
The NHL allows its teams to sell a majority of their games regionally, so it’s the Habs who ultimately decide where to broadcast 60 of their 82 regular games. Bear in mind that a majority of these games will remain on RDS, since Bell also co-owns the team…
But…
I’m pretty sure that some games will be broadcast on Crave and/or on an application that the Habs could launch themselves(Allo Réjean!). Already, the Habs have just announced that a TV series on their rebuild will be available exclusively on Crave…
“Forcing fans to subscribe to a streaming service provided by one of your co-shareholders is the current trend. So is selling games on a per-game basis, or a subscription to a new platform over which you have 100% control.
And this regional deal will be negotiated at the same time as the national rights. Discussions have probably already begun.
In short, if you think it’s complex right now to say to yourself: on Saturdays, I watch hockey on TVA Sports (or Sportsnet or CBC) and the other games I watch on RDS, you should know that in two years’ time, it will be even more complex. I really expect that some games won’t be available on traditional TV, and that many people will turn a blind eye. But hey, the other leagues are there now, and the NHL won’t escape.
If you haven’t been following along, I invite you to reread this text a second time. It’s heavy and complex, but it makes sense. Take my word for it!