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Cottage Life

Last year’s top 10 Canadian weather events

Late in 2022, Environment and Climate Change Canada released its annual list of the top 10 weather events of the year. Sure, weather stats show that 2021 was more destructive, disruptive, and expensive than 2022. But last year was no weather picnic. Remember Fiona? Remember the billion-dollar derecho? “In 2022, Mother Nature either froze, buried, soaked, smothered, blew at, or frightened us at various times throughout the year,” the ECCC announced in its official roundup press release. Here’s which events made the top 10. Drum roll, please!

 

No. 1 Hurricane Fiona

No surprise here: Fiona topped the destruct-o list. She pummelled Atlantic Canada with rain, wind, storm surges, and waves; rainfall amounts topped 150 mm in parts of the Maritimes and eastern Quebec, and rainfall rates, at times, exceeded 30 mm per hour. Winds exceeded 100 km/h in five provinces, blowing, in some cases, for 12 hours straight, knocking down power poles and 100-year-old trees. It was “likely the most damaging hurricane in Canadian history,” says the ECCC. No kidding.

Insurance and government overlook cottagers affected by Hurricane Fiona

No. 2 The Ontario and Quebec derecho

If you didn’t know what a derecho was at the beginning of 2022, you do now. The group of thunderstorms that hit Ontario and Quebec over the May long weekend was the first time in the history of the ECCC’s weather service that the government issued a severe weather phone alert through the National Public Alerting System. According to the ECCC, the service only issues such an alert if winds reach 130 km/h or if the storm produces hail that measures more than seven centimetres (picture spheres the size of baseballs falling from the sky).

Experts weigh in on how damaging the May long weekend storm was

No.3 A wet, wet spring in Manitoba

Record amounts of melting snow combined with record amounts of rain—more than three times the 30-year normal—meant that the province experienced some of its most extensive and longest-lasting flooding in years. The heavy rainfalls happened intensely and quickly, faster than the still-frozen ground could absorb the excess water. Multiple rivers were at risk of overflowing; 45 municipalities and nine First Nation communities across the province declared local states of emergency.

Cottagers told to evacuate as severe flooding persists in southeast Manitoba

No. 4 Hot and dry all over

Summer 2022 was the third-warmest on record for Canada (2012 and 1998 were hotter); temperatures were, across the country, nearly 1.6°C “above normal.” A huge and persistent heat dome engulfed much of Western North America. It wasn’t as intense as the 2021 heat dome, but it lasted longer, and many weather-recording sites broke century-long records for August through October.

No.5 The double-coast wildfires

Even though the B.C. wildfire season started slowly thanks to a wet spring (see No.6), by July it was in full force. The first major blaze (the Nohomin Creek Fire) broke out on July 14 just west of Lytton, B.C. By the end of July, another major blaze, the Keremeos Creek wildfire, had broken out near Penticton. By the beginning of August, the provincial government had issued 1,000 property evacuations. On the other side of the country, meanwhile, parts of central Newfoundland were experiencing the worst wildfires in more than 60 years. Why? Summer temperatures were warmer by 2 to 3°C and rainfall was, across the province, up to 70 per cent below normal.

Over 300 properties, mountain resort, ordered to evacuate wildfire zone in B.C.

No. 6 Spring is winter in B.C.

In B.C., winter 2022 lasted until nearly the first day of summer. Multiple communities across the province had record-breaking lows over the Easter weekend. In fact, twenty-seven record-low temperatures were set on April 16; Vancouver registered its coldest day for that month since observations began in 1896. Nanaimo, meanwhile, experienced its wettest April since 1892. And in Victoria, between May 20 and June 18—a.k.a. the dry season—23 out of 30 days were wet. Ugh.

No. 7 Super-storms in the Prairies

July in the Prairies was stormy. Super stormy. At least four powerful and dangerous July thunderstorms barrelled from the Alberta foothills to eastern Manitoba, bringing rain, huge hail, gusty winds, and tornadoes. The first one hit the afternoon of July 7, developing over central and southern Alberta. The town of Bergen recorded an EF-2 tornado—wind speeds between 180 and 190 km/h. The next day brought golf-ball size hail and four more tornadoes in parts of Saskatchewan (near Paynton and Blaine Lake). Then, on July 9, yet another tornado touched down near Argyle. Unfortunately, that tornado-tastic storm was just the first in the month-long series of storms. Take a break, Mother Nature!

No.8 The “humongous” amount of rain in Montreal

September brought urban flooding—a phenomenon “that is becoming more frequent and more impactful”—to the Quebec city. Downtown, along with the eastern suburbs, received a month’s worth of rain in just two hours. The downpour swamped intersections and underpasses with up to a metre of water. Highways and streets had to close, and water poured into Montreal Metro stations. Flooded pipes and sewers shot manhole covers into the air, and cars were stranded. According to the ECCC, insurance losses totalled $166 million. This makes the Montreal rain event the third most expensive extreme weather disaster in 2022 after the Ontario-Quebec derecho and Hurricane Fiona.

How will climate change affect your property? A new tool shows you

No.9 Record-breaking cold to ring in the new year

In December 2021, an extremely cold air mass from Siberia descended across most of Northern and Western Canada. On Christmas Eve, the N.W.T’s Deadmen Valley recorded a low of -45°C. (The only place on earth colder was Yakutsk, Russia, at -48°C.) Elsewhere, at times, everywhere from B.C. to Northern Ontario was under an extreme cold weather warning, with wind chills ranging between -40 and -55. On December 26, Key Lake, Sask., plunged to -42.1°C (-50 wind chill); two days later, Edmonton, Alta., followed suit, breaking a record set in 1880. The new year was worse, especially for those in the Northwest Territories. Between January 5 and 7, the temperature in Whitehorse plummeted to -44.8°C and at Watson Lake it bottomed out at -52.2°C. (A record-low, of course.)

Do you dress for the cold weather the right way?

No. 10 Three weekends of January storms in Atlantic Canada

Atlantic Canada couldn’t catch a break in January 2022. During the first week of the year, a storm intensified into a bomb cyclone along the Eastern seaboard before arriving in the Maritimes. Cape Breton got the worst of the storm’s snow: up to 50 cm. Then, on January 15, Cape Breton got another smackdown as a similar storm from the mid-Atlantic directly hit it. Poor Cape Breton. Finally, at the end of the month, a third weekend storm formed in the south before walloping New England and getting stronger as it closed in on Canada. In New Brunswick, the added snow, dumped onto already huge snow drifts, lead to zero visibility conditions, and northern parts of Nova Scotia were hit with more than 40 cm. Snow-maggedon!

And…that’s a wrap on 2022. Let’s see what 2023 brings. Get ready.

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Cottage Life

How will climate change impact your property? New real estate tool shows you

Climate change is a reality that is overwhelming to tackle. But two tech companies aren’t shying away from the issue. Instead, they’ve created a tool that allows real estate buyers to see how the climate is expected to shift around their prospective property.

Montreal-based Local Logic has partnered with San Fransico-based ClimateCheck to bring Canadian buyers a climate risk assessment.

“Climate change is transforming the real estate landscape, introducing new and costly levels of physical risk to property,” said Vincent-Charles Hodder, co-founder and CEO of Local Logic, in a statement. “Home seekers can now assess an area’s risk for climate-related disasters and, using our suite of location insights, make more informed decisions about where to buy and how to mitigate risks from climate change.”

The new tool is currently being used by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, Royal LePage, and REW.ca for listings across Canada.

“It’s looking at 2050, and it’s saying within the next 30 years, what is the forecasted climate impact on this area for heat and for storms,” said Pierre Calzadilla, Local Logic’s EVP of growth.

The tool covers a five-kilometre radius around the property and will tell you how many hot days to expect in 2050, what the average temperature of those days will be, how many severe storms will occur, and how much precipitation to expect.

For example, a home for sale in North Vancouver currently experiences seven hot days per year at an average of 27 degrees Celsius. That number’s expected to increase to 24 days in 2050, averaging 31 degrees Celsius. As for storms, the area’s expected to see a jump from 12 significant two-day storms to 14, with the precipitation per storm rising from 885 mm to 1020 mm.

As the climate changes, Calzadilla pointed out that many insurance companies are pulling back from high-risk areas, such as floodplains, and buyers aren’t always aware. “It just helps people understand that this is a real thing. People have to take into account that there’s nowhere to hide with climate change.”

Local Logic and ClimateCheck have been providing free climate risk assessments in the U.S. for several years, presenting data on heat, storm, fire, drought, and flood. Calzadilla said that the two companies are currently working on introducing flood-risk data in Canada.

On top of climate risk assessments, Local Logic also provides information about a property’s surrounding area. For example, suppose a young family was looking to buy a new home. Local Logic could tell them the average noise levels in the neighbourhood, how close schools are, accessibility to transit, and the ease of getting groceries.

The company’s ability to provide location intelligence makes it the perfect partner for ClimateCheck, which was founded to bring climate change information to real estate owners and buyers.

“Combining ClimateCheck’s granular climate risk data with Local Logic’s location intelligence insights helps real estate brokers, investors, and consumers alike understand how intensifying hazards like flood and fire might affect their properties in the future,” said Cal Inman, CEO of ClimateCheck, in a statement. “This knowledge empowers them to make smarter decisions about where they buy property and how they maintain or improve property to guard against mounting risks.”

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Cottage Life

Cottage Q&A: Builder liability if the cottage floods

Is my builder liable if my new cottage is built in a floodplain and it floods?—Sierra Marley, via email

We’re assuming you’re in Ontario, and that you’re asking this question because of the recent changes brought about by Bill 23 and the two proposed amendments to the Conservation Authorities Act. Unfortunately, it’s a tough question to answer. And not only because Bill 23 is a new piece of legislation.

“These sorts of things are very fact specific and a number of variables can drastically affect the legal issues,” says Oliver Cooper, a lawyer with MKC Law Office in Peterborough, Ont. Still, yes, it’s possible that the builder could be liable—it would likely depend on the contract that you signed with them at the time of the build.

Actually, “there are a number of parties who could potentially be liable, including any contractors, municipalities issuing permits, builders, and inspectors,” says Cooper. Who is legally at fault for damage to the flooded cottage would be affected by “any contracts entered into which may limit liability and the duty of care and standard of care each party has to the owner,” he says. “I have seen claims where all of the above have been named in lawsuits, along with prior owners.”

Your question brings up other questions: what if this flood happens years after the cottage is built and the builder isn’t even around anymore? And what about insurance—would a company insure such a property without excluding flooding as an insured risk? Would a company insure it at all?

Cottage Q&A: Insurance for lake ice damage

Bottom line: it’s complicated. (Legal matters usually are.) As always, if you have concerns, you’re best to contact a lawyer directly and lay out the specifics of your particular situation.

Got a question for Cottage Q&A? Send it to answers@cottagelife.com.

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Flood watch issued for sections of Lake Erie

Flooding is normally a spring occurrence. But this fall, as the weather cools, Lake Erie residents may have to get the sandbags out.

Since the start of September, three separate conservation authorities have issued shoreline conditions statements for Lake Erie. A shoreline conditions statement is an early notice sent out by conservation authorities indicating that weather and lake conditions could lead to potential flooding.

The three conservation authorities concerned include the Lower Thames Valley Conservation Authority, which covers the Chatham-Kent area; Long Point Region Conservation Authority, which covers Norfolk County; and Grand River Conservation Authority, which covers Haldimand County.

According to the Lower Thames Valley Conservation Authority, average daily water levels on Lake Erie are sitting around 174.52 metres. This is actually down compared to the last several years—September water levels peaked in 2019 at 174.87 metres. But Lake Erie’s water levels are still 33 centimetres above the average water level for September.

While there’s been no significant flooding reported, the Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources, and Forestry (MNRF) warns that elevated water levels can result in shoreline flooding, beach submersion, crawl space and septic system inundation, and wave-driven erosion along Lake Erie’s shoreline.

Without snow melt, the biggest factor in fall flooding is the weather, particularly precipitation and strong winds. Excess rain can cause the water levels to continue rising, and strong winds generate waves that batter the shoreline, eroding unprotected areas.

“The bluff areas all along the Lake Erie shoreline are…at a greater risk of erosion due to the high lake levels, especially when there are onshore winds and waves,” says the Lower Thames Valley Conservation Authority in a statement. “The erosion can cause the bluffs to fail, and there have been times over the last few years when many metres of land have fallen into the lake all at one time.”

Under current conditions, severe flooding and erosion would only happen if there were gale force winds, says the Lower Thames Valley Conservation Authority. It is, however, warning residents to be cautious around Erie Shore Drive as sustained winds of 35 km/h travelling from a southwest to southeast direction could flood the area.

If a flooding event occurs on your property and you’re stuck indoors, the MNRF says the first thing you should do is ensure all important personal items, such as medication and passports, are secured. Then disconnect all electrical appliances, and ensure your phone is charged.

If you’re caught outdoors during a flooding event, move to higher ground, don’t drive through moving water or on roads that travel near the body of water, such as bridges or embankments, and keep children and pets away from floodwaters.

Finally, contact your local municipality to let them know about the flooding.

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Cottage Life

Kenora issues evacuation order amidst severe flooding

On May 13, the city of Kenora in northern Ontario issued an evacuation order for residents in the Black Sturgeon Lake area due to severe flooding.

Rising water levels are washing out rural roads in the northern city, making it impossible for emergency services to reach residents in the affected areas. “There are a number of roads that are about 26 to 28 inches underwater,” says Kenora Mayor Dan Reynard.

The flooding is occurring in rural sections northeast of the city, above the Highway 17 bypass, affecting approximately 250 properties, Reynard says, many of them cottages. The cause of the flooding is linked to snowmelt, rainfall, and a cool spring.

“We had so much snow over the winter, especially the last two, three months,” Reynard says. “We had a very late spring, so we had all this rapid melt. And then last week, we had two major rain storms within 24 hours. That dropped a significant amount of water not only in Kenora but throughout the entire Lake of the Woods watershed.”

The Winnipeg River system, which Black Sturgeon Lake flows into, is above the 95th percentile, according to the Lake of the Woods Control Board. That means there’s more water in the Winnipeg River now than there has been in 95 per cent of the years the Lake of the Woods Control Board has monitored the system. This has caused a back-flow in Black Sturgeon Lake, resulting in overland flooding.

Three days before the city issued its evacuation order, Kenora declared a local state of emergency under the Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act, 1990. According to Reynard, declaring a state of emergency helps spread awareness about the flooding while allowing the city’s Municipal Emergency Control Group to tap into provincial funding that can go towards combating the flooding and dealing with any damage.

To help mitigate flooding, the city obtained 100,000 sandbags that residents can pick up for free from the local firehall. For people who aren’t residents of the municipality, such as cottagers, they can pick up free sandbags from the Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources, and Forestry office. Contractors have also been brought in to raise roads in affected areas.

For those displaced by the flooding, the city has set up an evacuation shelter at the Kenora Recreation Centre. Although, Reynard says, as of now, no one’s had to use the shelter.

“That tells us a couple things. Number one, a lot of these are recreational properties, so people aren’t here,” he says. “Number two, people can still get to their property if they have a boat. You could be going back and forth as long as you can get to a main landing by boat. And the other factor is that people are staying with families and friends outside the area that’s been designated for evacuation.”

8 things every cottager can do to get ready for the next flood

Road entry points into the evacuation area are being monitored by OPP officers. Once a resident or cottager has evacuated, they will not be allowed back into their property due to the risk that the gravel roads in the area could have been washed away by the water.

Reynard says the city is continuing to provide support for those affected, but predictions indicate that the water levels will continue to rise.

“Based on historical data, it will drop at some point,” he says. “But the Lake of the Woods Control Board is saying that there’s twice as much water coming into Lake of the Woods than they can dump into the Winnipeg river system. The dam is wide open. So, it’s going to take some time for water levels to get back to where they would normally be at this time of the year.”

Is your cottage at high risk for flooding? Consider “wetproofing”

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The surprising way woodstove ashes can help your forest

Muskoka’s trees are famously colourful, but are not as strong or productive as they could be. The soil lacks calcium, a vital nutrient for growth, and an Ontario non-profit is working on a clever solution to fertilizing the soil: scattering recycled wood ash. 

“Calcium plays many of the same roles in trees as it does in humans,” says Norman Yan, a retired biology professor at York University. Yan is a board member of the Friends of the Muskoka Watershed, a not-for-profit group that is dedicated to researching and finding solutions to Muskoka’s environmental challenges. With their ASHMuskoka program, they hope to replenish the calcium deficient soils of the region in order to boost forest productivity.

Yan explains that in Eastern Canada, the Northeastern United States, and parts of Scandinavia, a history glacial retreat has towed much of the soil away, leaving behind low-calcium granite bedrock. “We’ve also had decades of acid rain. It took about a third, sometimes to a half, of the residual calcium away,” says Yan. He estimates that Muskoka soils have lost around half a ton of calcium per hectare, mostly due to acid rain.

Like in humans, calcium plays an important role in all kinds of physiological functions, from basic cellular processes to wound repair. Yan says that wood from trees that are deficient in calcium are actually 20-30 per cent weaker than their non-deficient counterparts, and the phenomenon of calcium-poor soils results in a condition called ecological osteoporosis.“The implications of that are lower photosynthesis, weaker wood, lower rates of oxygen production and sugar production, and weaker regeneration.”

To mitigate the calcium deficiency, the ASHMuskoka program is focused on research and sustainable solutions. Rather than importing limestone or dolomite to restore the lost calcium, the program proposes recycling wood ash from residential wood stoves. “Hundreds if not thousands of people out here heat with wood,” says Yan. “The ash that’s leftover is kind of a waste. It has more or less all the nutrients that the tree needs in the right proportions.” Except, he says, for nitrogen, which isn’t a concern because Muskoka soils already have plentiful amounts of that nutrient.

In the program’s study plots Yan and other researchers have already found that fertilizing forest stands increased calcium and potassium levels in foliage and dramatically improved calcium levels in root systems. “The most interesting result that we don’t quite understand yet is a dramatic increase in sap volume from sugar maples,” says Yan. In one experiment, some maple trees supplemented with wood ash doubled in sap flow.

12 little known facts about maple syrup

 The broader benefits of fertilizing forests with wood ash are multifold. For one, trees supplemented with wood ash transpire—or release water vapour through their leaves—25 per cent more than non-fertilized trees. The added water vapour in the atmosphere could influence the water cycle and mitigate the spring flooding issue the region often faces.

8 things every cottager can do to get ready for the next flood

Critically, boosted forest growth can be vital for capturing carbon dioxide from the Earth’s atmosphere. “This could make a real contribution to Canada’s goal to be carbon neutral by 2050 if we can roll out a program like this across the landscape,” says Yan. A study done in New Hampshire found that calcium-fertilized forests captured a ton more carbon dioxide per year per hectare.  

Now, the AshMuskoka program is looking to collaborate with logging companies that could oversee the widespread  implementation of wood ash fertilization. They’re also interested in raising awareness for recycling wood ash and involving the public in their project.

People interested in ASHMuskoka can contribute in several ways. For one the program is planning a citizen science project where property owners can volunteer some of their land as a study plot. ASHMuskoka also runs monthly wood ash drives where volunteers can drop off their ash at the Rosewarne Transfer Station in Bracebridge, Ont. Lastly, people that have groves of maples or other hardwoods can also sprinkle about a yoghurt container per square yard of wood ash in their forest stands. “You’ll see a real benefit for the health of your trees,” says Yan. Just be sure the ash is completely cold to eliminate any risk of starting a forest fire.

“If we look after our forests, our forests will look after us,” says Yan. “The forest could be a lot healthier in mitigating climate change and mitigating spring floods.”

 

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Cottage Q&A: Basement flooding damage

How do we repair damage from basement flooding? Our cottage has a fully-insulated basement with a concrete floor. Thanks to a sump well and proper drainage, this basement has stayed warm and dry for years. But in 2019-2020 there were record-high water levels on the Great Lakes. The water table rose to just under our floor. As the water table started to drop, a white powder appeared on the floor, and also around support pillars and internal block walls. What is this white powder, and how do we remove it? Once that is done, is there a product we could use to coat the floor?—Bob and Joan Bowman, Sauble Beach, Ont.

The white powder is likely efflorescence: the visible salts and minerals left behind when water evaporates. It’s not pretty, but it won’t hurt you.

Try cleaning it with vinegar and a scrub brush—that should remove it. If not, you could use a dedicated efflorescence cleaner. (Check hardware or home reno stores.) 

Is your cottage at high risk of flooding?

As an absolute last resort, you could “upgrade to muriatic acid,” says Roger Frost of Napoleon Home Inspections in Barrie. (But PSA: it’s terrifyingly caustic stuff. The expert advice on using it ranges from “Cover every part of yourself in protection; consider installing an eye-wash station” to “Don’t touch it. Don’t even look at it.” We’d rather live with the white powder.)  

After cleaning, you could coat the floor with an epoxy paint, but it can be prone to flaking, peeling, and blistering—that might look uglier than leaving the basement bare. And it’s not going to provide much waterproofing. 

Cottage Q&A: A wet crawl space solution

“Stopping water from coming in is the best solution, and that could be impossible if the water table rises again,” says Frost.

Still, you have a few choices to handle future dampness problems, says Don Fugler, a building scientist formerly with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC): regular cleaning to deal with any stains, a “false floor” to hide the stains, or installing a pump to work with the sump and keep the water several inches lower than the floor. “But be aware that, if you are trying to stem the movement of water from a Great Lake, that pump might be running continuously for weeks,” says Fugler. A more extreme option would be to change the basement into an isolated crawl space, he says. Excessive? Maybe, but cottage country could be in store for decades more of high-water levels and flooding. “Who knows what eventually will happen with a changing climate?”

This article was originally published in the August/September 2021 issue of Cottage Life magazine.

Got a question for Cottage Q&A? Send it to answers@cottagelife.com.

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What is an atmospheric river? A look at the force behind the flooding in B.C.

Parts of British Columbia have been hit with intense flooding that has washed out highways, destroyed infrastructure, and brought evacuation orders to areas like the Fraser Valley. What some officials are calling “the worst weather storm in a century” is the result of an atmospheric river—a natural occurrence that can have devastating consequences.

What is an atmospheric river?

We usually think of rivers on the ground, but they can also take shape in the sky, forming a long band of concentrated moisture that turns into heavy rain or snow once it makes landfall. Dr. Brent Ward, a professor in the earth sciences department of Simon Fraser University, says atmospheric rivers used to be called “pineapple expresses” since they often originated near Hawaii, but we now know they can form in more places. 

Though it’s common for atmospheric rivers to make landfall in B.C.—there have already been five this year, Ward says—they usually don’t cause this level of destruction. “They’ll hit Vancouver Island and there’ll be landslides and high rivers, but often it’s outside of Tofino, so people don’t notice it as much,” Ward says.

Why do atmospheric rivers happen?

Atmospheric rivers are a key part of the Earth’s water cycles as they transport moisture from the tropics to the Northern and Southern hemispheres. California, for example, relies heavily on atmospheric rivers as a source of rainfall. As with a tornado or hurricane, an atmospheric river doesn’t always make landfall, but experts have found that climate change increases the chances it will, along with the intensity of its impact. 

One 2018 study suggested atmospheric rivers that drift over the Northern hemisphere could increase in size by up to 50 per cent. This is largely due to the warming atmosphere, and as Ward explains, when ocean temperatures increase, it’s easier for water to evaporate up into these sky-bound rivers.

What’s different about the one that hit British Columbia?

The province broke precipitation records over the past few days, but Ward says the pattern of this atmospheric river was also unusual. “It came in a little more East-West,” he says. Once it tracked into the mountainous valleys surrounding Vancouver, “it kept piling up against the mountains, and then dumped all this precipitation at once.”

The intensity of wildfires this summer also played a role. As Ward explains, there’s a strong link between intense forest fires and the chance for debris flows (the technical term for mud or landslides). 

“When we get fires, they’re bigger and hotter, so they’re burning more of the trees and a lot of the organics in the soil,” Ward explains. If forests burn to that extent, the crucial layer which helps retain moisture is stripped away. As a result, a waxy substance is formed over top of the soil, known as a hydrophobic layer. When water hits this, it slides along and doesn’t soak in; Ward likens it to watering a very parched garden. 

“Once the water flows off a slope and hits a steeper area, it’s going fast enough to erode that hydrophobic layer, and sometimes that’s enough to trigger a debris flow,” he says. Ward points out that areas with some of the most destructive debris flows, such as in the town of Merritt, were also where the worst fires happened last summer. He and other environmental experts call this the idea of “cascading hazards.”

How long will this atmospheric river last?

Much of the intense torrential rain has tapered off in B.C., meaning, for now, the worst of this atmospheric river’s landfall in the province has passed. However, its effects can extend to the rest of Canada and beyond, bringing intense rain, snow, wind, and other storm conditions.

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How will the Great Lakes region be affected by climate change?

The Great Lakes are getting warmer, wetter, and wilder. These atypical conditions are amplifying other threats. Harmful algal blooms are increasing in severity and geographic extent, sewers are overflowing and stormwater is flooding neighbourhoods and parks. Many terrestrial organisms are shifting northwards and worsening air quality is disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable people living in cities.

The Great Lakes hold one-fifth the standing freshwater on the Earth’s surface and more than 34 million people live in the basin, supporting an economy worth US$5 trillion—if it were a country, it would be one of the largest economies in the world. And yet shoreline communities are faltering under the weight of billions of dollars in damages—and are worried that climate change will continue to make things even worse.

Like the Arctic’s thawing permafrost, the Great Lakes basin is a key sentinel of climate change. Climate change has already immensely affected the region and its impacts will continue to expand as the pace of climate change accelerates, bringing new socio-economic and environmental challenges.

With the UN climate conference in Glasgow (COP26) underway, world leaders are discussing what must be done to address the climate crisis and making pledges to take specific actions. Adaptation features heavily in the COP26 agenda, including the Glasgow Adaptation Imperative to assess action taken and action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goal on adaptation and promote a more climate resilient future for all, particularly the most vulnerable communities and ecosystems.

Climate change impacts

In the Great Lakes, climate change is considered a threat multiplier, meaning it exacerbates other threats to the ecosystem.

All the Great Lakes are warming, but Lake Superior stands out. Still the coldest lake, its summer surface water temperatures increased 2.5 C between 1979 and 2006, even faster than air temperatures. Even the deep waters of Lake Michigan are warming at a rate of 0.5 C per decade.

The Great Lakes have lost more than 70 per cent of their total winter ice cover over the past 50 years. That means more open water during winter, thinner ice and less of the ice fishing that is so popular with basin denizens. Less ice cover will, however, lengthen the commercial shipping season.

Ice fishing is popular among those living near the Great Lakes. But as air temperatures rise in the winter, the ice is thinner and is in place for a shorter time. (Photo by Marianne Danielsen/Shutterstock)

Overall, warming of the lakes will alter the seasonal patterns of warm and cold water layers and the dynamics of the lakes’ food webs, and it will lead to greater shoreline damage from strong winter storms.

In some areas within the Great Lakes basin, water levels have risen by two metres, eroding shorelines, washing away houses, destroying roads, threatening infrastructure such as water treatment plants and disrupting age-old traditions of Indigenous Peoples.

Climate change is one of the leading threats to birds in the Great Lakes and North America. The 2019 Audubon Report “Survival by Degrees” found that 64 per cent of bird species (389 of 604) across breeding and non-breeding seasons were moderately or highly vulnerable to climate change. As indicator species, birds are telling us the time to act is now.

In addition, climate change will likely alter the range and distribution of certain fish species, increase the frequency and severity of harmful algal blooms, exacerbate wetland loss, create new threats from invasive species, diminish beach health and, in some cases, displace or extirpate native species.

Urban impacts of climate change

The effects of climate change are heightened in urban areas and impose a high financial burden to municipalities. Detroit is a good example.

Detroit is an old city with combined storm and sanitary sewers that overflow stormwater and raw sewage during heavy rainfall events. It also has plenty of impervious surfaces that promote runoff.

Extreme rainfall events have flooded highways, streets and neighbourhoods. High water levels have frequently flooded Detroit’s Jefferson-Chalmers neighbourhood. In response, the city spent US$2 million in 2020 on “tiger dams,” large, temporary, water-filled berms, to keep the water from flooding houses.

On the 398-hectare Belle Isle State Park, high water levels closed roads, flooded picnic areas and postponed 60 weddings at the popular Boat House, a more than 100-year-old rowing facility, in 2019. They have also delayed a US$5-million habitat restoration project on Blue Heron Lagoon and forced the redesign of the one-hectare, US$4.2-million Oudolf Garden, designed by Piet Oudolf, an internationally renowned Dutch garden designer.

Detroit is also projected to experience a significant increase in the number of very hot days by the end of the century, reaching as many as 65 days above 32.2 C. The burden of heat and poor air quality accompanying the climate threat will disproportionately affect the city’s most vulnerable residents.

Adapting to climate change

Many municipalities, provinces and states around the Great Lakes have been developing adaptation plans to address local impacts of climate change at a high cost. This decentralized approach comes with its own problems, like unintended cross-border effects of local adaptation or duplication of efforts. The United Nations has shown that flood risk reduction strategies in one part of a basin may increase flood risks in another portion of the basin that is located in another country.

A small home along Lake Michigan’s shoreline toppled down a bluff in January 2020.

An integrated, basin-wide ecosystem approach could allow for cost-sharing of scientific studies and co-ordinated policy action at national and sub-national levels, leading to better adaptation. Because the Great Lakes are a shared resource among many governments, including those of Canada, the United States, eight states, two provinces and tribes, First Nations and the Métis Nation, transboundary co-operation is needed.

In 2017, the Great Lakes Water Quality Board of the International Joint Commission, an independent adviser to Canada and the United States, recommended that both countries negotiate and develop a co-ordinated strategy for climate change adaptation and ecological resilience. These recommendations reflect strong public opinion, yet almost five years later no comprehensive binational climate change strategy has been put into place.

The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement calls for strengthened measures to anticipate and prevent ecological harm, by following the precautionary principle—when human activities may lead to unacceptable harm that is scientifically plausible but uncertain, actions shall be taken to avoid or diminish that harm.

There is enough scientific evidence that climate change poses a threat to the entire Great Lakes region—and the 38 million people who live there. As is being discussed and pledged at COP26, all must work together to limit global warming to 1.5 C, including the Great Lakes region, and all must immediately advance climate adaptation and resilience.

 

John Hartig, Visiting Scholar, Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, University of Windsor; Patrícia Galvão Ferreira, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, University of Windsor, and Robert Michael McKay, Executive Director and Professor, Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, University of Windsor

This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world. More. The ConversationThis article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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