Mark Carney elected and the Liberals with a majority according to new models

Facing Carney, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is having trouble keeping the momentum of his party, which still recently enjoyed a comfortable lead in voting intentions.

The latest 338Canada projections indicate that Mark Carney is on track to form a majority government.

This spectacular reversal comes after months of decline for the Liberals under Justin Trudeau, who have seen their popularity plummet against the Conservatives.

According to the latest projections from 338Canada as of April 2025, Mark Carney's Liberal Party is on track to win a majority in the House of Commons with 196 seats, far exceeding the required threshold of 172.

The Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre would get 120 seats, while the Quebecois Bloc would get 17. The NPD would be relegated to 8 seats, and the Green Party would only keep 2.

These figures confirm a spectacular reversal of the political landscape in a few months, while the liberals were given as losers at the beginning of the year.

The arrival of Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has given a boost to the Liberal Party, which now reaches 44% of voting intentions.

This progression is partly explained by the response of the Canadiens to tariff threats and the aggressive statements of Donald Trump towards Canada's sovereignty. In this situation, Mark Carney's firm response seems to have convinced the electorate more than Pierre Poilievre's hesitant attempt to distance himself from the former American president.

Against Carney, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is having trouble maintaining the momentum of his party, which until recently enjoyed a comfortable lead in voting intentions. His image remains tarnished by controversial statements and a political line often perceived as modeled on that of Donald Trump, which hinders his ability to expand his electorate.

According to Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada, the Liberals now have a 55% chance of winning a majority, compared to less than 1% in January. The Canadians are going to the polls on April 28th.